硅谷教父马克·安德森：AI革命才刚开始，智能的价格正在崩塌

\u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content\"\u003e\u003csection data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\" style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: none; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 30px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection nodeleaf=\"\" style=\"text-align: center\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e2026年1月7日，a16z（Andreessen Horowitz）联合创始人马克·安德森（Marc Andreessen）在自家播客The a16z Show上做了一场长达81分钟的深度对谈。作为Netscape浏览器的发明者、硅谷最具影响力的投资人之一，安德森在这场AMA（有问必答）式访谈中罕见地系统阐述了他对AI产业的完整判断。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这不是一场常规的展望演讲。安德森从1943年的神经网络学术论文讲起，把AI的崛起放在80年技术演进史中审视；他详细评价了中国AI公司的突破，承认\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_0--\u003eDeepSeek\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_0--\u003e和Kimi让硅谷\u0026#34;感到惊讶\u0026#34;；他预测GPU短缺将在十年内转变为产能过剩，AI的单位成本会\u0026#34;像石头一样直线下跌\u0026#34;。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e最关键的判断是：\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这是他一生中见过最大的技术革命，比互联网还要大，可以与电力、蒸汽机相提并论。但我们才刚刚开始。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e以下是这场访谈的核心内容编译。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background: rgba(1, 169, 216, 0.3); border-radius: 50%; color: transparent; font-size: 16px; height: 30px; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px -30px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; width: 30px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px 0px 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"color: rgb(55, 80, 114); font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e一、这是最大的技术革命，而我们只在第一局\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e主持人\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：Marc，我们现在处于AI革命的第几局（Inning）？你最兴奋的是什么？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：首先，我要说这是我有生以来最大的技术革命。从量级上来看，这显然比互联网还要大，能与之类比的是微处理器、蒸汽机和电力这类事物。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e为什么这么说？如果你回溯到1930年代，在发明计算机之前，科学家们就已经理解了计算理论。当时存在一场大辩论：是按照\u0026#34;加法机\u0026#34;（收银机）的形象来构建计算机，还是按照人脑的模型？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e最终，行业选择了前者。这就是我们过去80年所处的计算机行业——建造那些每秒可以执行数十亿次数学运算的超字面意义的数学机器，但无法像人类一样理解语音、语言。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e但在1943年，第一篇神经网络学术论文就已经发表了。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e你可以在YouTube上看到作者McCulloch在1946年的采访，他在海边别墅里，出于某种原因没穿衬衫，谈论着计算机将通过神经网络建立在人脑模型之上的未来。那是一条未被选择的路。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e神经网络作为一个想法，被一小群人探索了80年。本质上它并不奏效，十年又十年的过度乐观紧接着失望。当我在80年代上大学时，AI算是一个冷门领域，每个人都认为它永远不会实现。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e然后ChatGPT时刻发生了。那是不到三年前的事——2022年圣诞节。突然之间，一切具象化了。这项技术的巨大好消息是它已经极其民主化了，世界上最好的AI可以在ChatGPT、\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_1--\u003eGrok\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_1--\u003e、Gemini上直接获得。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e我想说的是：我基本上每天都对我所看到的东西感到惊讶。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e每天我都会看到一篇新的AI研究论文，完全让我震惊——那是某种新的能力，或者某种新的发现，是我从未预料到的。然后在另一边，我们看到所有新产品和新初创公司的涌现。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这一波新的AI公司正在实现的营收增长——我说的是实实在在的客户收入——其起飞速度绝对是前所未有的。关键的领先AI公司的收入增长速度肯定比我以前见过的任何浪潮都快。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e从所有这些来看，感觉它肯定还处于早期。很难想象我们已经见顶了。我非常怀疑人们今天使用的产品形态会是五年或十年后的样子。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e我认为我们可能还有很长的路要走。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background: rgba(1, 169, 216, 0.3); border-radius: 50%; color: transparent; font-size: 16px; height: 30px; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px -30px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; width: 30px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px 0px 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"color: rgb(55, 80, 114); font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e二、智能的成本正在\u0026#34;超通缩\u0026#34;：比摩尔定律还快\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e主持人\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：最大的质疑之一是，是的，收入是巨大的，但支出似乎也保持着同步增长。那么在这个讨论中人们忽略了什么？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：让我从商业模式开始。这个行业基本上有两种核心商业模式：消费者模式和企业基础设施模式。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e在消费者方面，我们生活在一个非常有趣的世界——互联网已经完全部署了。地球上有50亿人都在使用某种版本的移动宽带互联网。世界各地的智能手机售价低至10美元。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e我之所以讲这一通，是因为消费者AI产品基本上可以以他们想要采用的速度，迅速部署给所有这些人。互联网是AI能够以光速扩散到全球广泛人口的载体波。你不能下载电力，不能下载室内管道，不能下载电视机，\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e但你可以下载AI。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这就是我们所看到的，AI消费级杀手级应用的增长速度惊人。变现能力非常好，包括在更高的价位上。现在消费者AI每月的价格层级达到200或300美元已变得很常见，我认为这非常积极。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e在企业方面，问题基本上就是：\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e智能值多少钱？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e如果你有能力向你的业务注入更多智能，比如提高客户服务评分、增加追加销售、减少客户流失，或者更有效地运行营销活动——所有这些都与AI直接相关。领先的AI基础设施公司的收入增长快得令人难以置信。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e核心商业模式基本上就是\u0026#34;按次购买Token\u0026#34;（tokens by the drink）——也就是每美元购买多少智能Token。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e关键来了：AI的价格正在发生什么？它的下降速度比摩尔定律还要快。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003eAI的所有输入都在单位基础上成本崩塌。结果就是这种单位成本的极度通缩（hyper deflation）。这就带来了供需弹性下的超越对应水平的需求增长。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e毫无疑问，\u0026#34;按次购买Token\u0026#34;的价格将从这里开始大幅下降。这只会驱动巨大的需求。然后成本结构中的一切都将得到优化。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background: rgba(1, 169, 216, 0.3); border-radius: 50%; color: transparent; font-size: 16px; height: 30px; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px -30px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; width: 30px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px 0px 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"color: rgb(55, 80, 114); font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e三、从短缺到过剩：GPU的命运已经注定\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e主持人\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：实际上，AWS说他们使用的GPU，已经能够将其使用寿命延长到甚至7年以上。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：是的，这是一个非常重要的观察。这也引出了另一个问题——大模型与小模型之争。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e很多数据中心的建设是围绕着托管、训练和服务大模型的。但在同一时间，小模型革命也在发生。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e如果你追踪前沿模型的能力随时间的变化，你会发现在6或12个月后，就会有一个小模型拥有同样的能力。所以有一种追逐功能正在发生，即大模型的能力基本上被压缩并在更小的尺寸下提供。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e我举个最近的例子，就在过去两周发生的。有一家中国公司生产名为Kimi的模型，Kimi的新版本是一个推理模型，至少根据目前的基准测试，它基本上复制了GPT-5级别的推理能力。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e而GPT-5级别的推理模型相对于GPT-4是一大进步，开发和服务成本极其高昂。突然之间，你有了一个名为Kimi的开源模型，它要么是被压缩到可以在一台MacBook上运行，要么是两台MacBook上。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c!--MID_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e所以你突然之间，如果你是一个企业，想拥有一个GPT-5能力的推理模型但不想支付GPT-5的成本，或者不想让它被托管在云上，想在本地运行它——\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e你可以做到。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e当然，\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003eOpenAI\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e会去开发GPT-6。所以有一种阶梯效应正在发生，整个行业都在向前发展。大模型变得更有能力，小模型在后面追赶。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e关于芯片方面，在任何具有商品属性的市场中，导致过剩的第一大原因就是短缺。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e当你遇到GPU短缺、芯片短缺、数据中心空间短缺时，如果你看看人类响应需求建造事物的历史——如果有某种东西短缺且可以被物理复制，它就会被复制。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e现在可能有数千亿甚至数万亿美元正投入地下搞这些东西。所以AI公司的单位成本将在未来十年像石头一样直线下跌。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003eNvidia实际上是一家很棒的公司，完全配得上他们所处的地位。但他们现在太值钱了，产生的利润太多了，这对芯片行业的其他公司来说是有史以来最好的信号。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e你有其他大公司像AMD在追赶他们。然后非常重要的是，超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）在制造自己的芯片。很多大科技公司正在制造自己的芯片，当然，中国人也在制造他们自己的芯片。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e五年内AI芯片很有可能会变得便宜且丰富，这将极有利于我们所投资的那类公司的经济效益。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background: rgba(1, 169, 216, 0.3); border-radius: 50%; color: transparent; font-size: 16px; height: 30px; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px -30px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; width: 30px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px 0px 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"color: rgb(55, 80, 114); font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e四、中国AI的\u0026#34;超新星时刻\u0026#34;：DeepSeek和Kimi的崛起\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：AI运行在所谓的GPU上有点历史的偶然性。个人电脑的经典架构是一个CPU和一个GPU。但事实是，有两种其他形式的计算非常有价值，而且恰好在操作上是大规模并行的，非常适合GPU架构。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这两种利润极其丰厚的额外应用——一个是从大约15年前开始的加密货币，然后是从大约四年前开始的AI。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e关于中国，我认为过去18个月发生的事情相当引人注目。基本上，在不到12个月的时间里，有四五家中国公司一路追到了行业前沿。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e最值得注意的是一家名为DeepSeek的公司。DeepSeek的模型在几乎所有基准测试中都与Claude 3.5 Sonnet和GPT-4o以及Gemini处于同一水平。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这真的是一个超新星时刻。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e它不仅性能出色，而且来自一家对冲基金，而非大型科技巨头，这完全出乎意料。它是完全开源的，任何人都可以下载和运行。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e然后你有月之暗面（Moonshot AI）的Kimi模型，你有字节跳动，你有阿里巴巴的Qwen模型，你有百度。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e所有这些都在不到12个月的时间里一路赶上。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e有趣的部分是：一旦有人证明了某件事是可行的，其他人想要追赶似乎并不难，即使是那些资源少得多的人。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e我认为有几件事正在发生：\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e第一，开源发挥了巨大作用。当某人做出新的突破时，开源模型基本上会说\u0026#34;这就是它的工作原理\u0026#34;。然后世界上每个聪明人都可以研究它并弄清楚如何复制它。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e第二，这个领域的人才非常年轻。世界上最好的AI研究人员，很多只有22、23、24岁。他们不可能在这个领域待很长时间——他们必然是在过去四五年里上来的。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e如果他们能做到，未来会有更多人做到。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e第三，中国在做什么，美国和其他人需要理解。中国在开源模型上的策略，实际上形成了一种全球性的价格竞争。这让美国政策制定者重新思考监管方向。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background: rgba(1, 169, 216, 0.3); border-radius: 50%; color: transparent; font-size: 16px; height: 30px; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px -30px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; width: 30px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px 0px 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"color: rgb(55, 80, 114); font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e五、大模型与小模型：一个智力金字塔的诞生\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：在这个行业里有一些非常聪明的人认为，最终一切都只会在大模型上运行。因为显然大模型总是最聪明的。所以你总是会想要最智能的东西。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e反驳的观点是：\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e世界上发生了大量的任务不需要爱因斯坦。一个智商120的人就很好了。你不需要一个智商160的弦理论博士，你只需要一个能干的人。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e我倾向于认为AI行业的结构会很像计算机行业的结构——你会有极少数基本上相当于超级计算机的东西，也就是这些运行在巨大数据中心的巨型\u0026#34;上帝模型\u0026#34;。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e然后会发生这种向下的级联，即更小的模型，最终一直到非常小的模型，运行在嵌入式系统中，运行在世界上每一件实物内部的单个芯片上。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e最聪明的模型总是会在顶端，但模型的数量实际上会是那些扩散出去的小模型更多。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这正是微芯片发生的事情，这也是计算机发生的事情——它们变成了微芯片，这也是操作系统和我们在软件中构建的许多其他东西所发生的事情。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background: rgba(1, 169, 216, 0.3); border-radius: 50%; color: transparent; font-size: 16px; height: 30px; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px -30px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; width: 30px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px 0px 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"color: rgb(55, 80, 114); font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e六、初创公司不是\u0026#34;套壳\u0026#34;：Cursor们正在自建模型\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e主持人\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：很多人质疑初创公司是否只是大模型的\u0026#34;套壳\u0026#34;（GPT Wrappers）？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e：这是一个重要的问题。我想用Cursor作为例子——Cursor是领先的AI编程工具之一。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cfigure style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_2--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/figure\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e表面上看，Cursor开始时确实是在调用大模型。但是实际上正在构建自己的AI模型。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这些领先的应用公司正在做的是\u0026#34;向后整合\u0026#34;。他们从一个模型开始，但很快就在使用12个模型、50个模型、甚至更多模型。不同的模型负责不同的部分。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e为什么会这样？因为他们拥有最深的领域认知。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e他们比任何人都更了解他们的客户需要什么。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e如果你能让医生、律师或程序员的生产力大幅提升，你能不能从这部分提升的价值中分一杯羹？我认为你可以。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这就是为什么我认为AI初创公司在定价上比SaaS公司更有创造力。高定价往往对客户是有利的，因为它支撑了更好的研发。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003csection style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003csection style=\"letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cp style=\"background: rgba(1, 169, 216, 0.3); border-radius: 50%; color: transparent; font-size: 16px; height: 30px; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px -30px; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; width: 30px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 20px; font-weight: bold; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; padding: 0px 0px 24px; text-align: justify\"\u003e\u003cstrong style=\"color: rgb(55, 80, 114); font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e七、我们还在第几局？答案是：才刚刚开始\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/section\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e回到最初的问题：我们现在处于第几局？\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森的回答是：非常早期。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e尽管AI已经成为全球热点话题，尽管ChatGPT的用户数已经突破数亿，尽管AI公司的收入增长创造了历史记录——\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e但产品形态还远未成熟。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e\u0026#34;我非常怀疑人们今天使用的产品形态会是五年或十年后的样子。产品会从现在开始变得更加完善。\u0026#34;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e成本在暴跌，能力在暴涨，竞争在加剧，商业模式在重构。这场革命的规模堪比电力，但我们才刚刚学会如何\u0026#34;发电\u0026#34;。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e如果你进行一项调查，美国选民对AI的看法就像是他们全都处于极度恐慌之中——天哪，这太可怕了，会抢走所有工作。\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb style=\"font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: inherit\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e但如果你观察他们的\u0026#34;显示偏好\u0026#34;（实际行为），他们所有人都在使用AI。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e这就是这场革命的真实状态：质疑声不断，但采用速度惊人。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(48, 48, 48); font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; hyphens: auto; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75em; margin: 0px; orphans: 2; padding: 0px 8px 24px; text-align: justify; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px\"\u003e\u003cspan leaf=\"\"\u003e安德森最后说：\u0026#34;感觉一切都还在发展中。坦率地说，感觉产品本身仍然超级早期。所以我认为我们可能还有很长的路要走。\u0026#34;\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.rich_media_content{color:#000000e5;font-size:var(--articleFontsize);overflow:hidden;text-align:justify}.rich_media_content{color:var(--new-content-color)}.rich_media_content{position:relative;z-index:0}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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【纠错】【责任编辑:想跳楼的鸽子】

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新华全媒头条丨踢满全场助球队取胜！乌加特终结个人英超首发7连败